Figure 1.
Spatial variation in 300 Index (mean annual volume increment at age 30 for a standard regime grown at 300 stems ha−1) for Pinus radiata in New Zealand [32]. Projection: New Zealand map grid.
Figure 2.
Known distribution of Thaumetopoea pityocampa in Europe, Asia and North Africa, combining records from before and after 1990.
Black circles indicate known locations for T. pityocampa, green triangles are locations from which impact data has been reported. Countries are shaded to indicate areas where T. pityocampa has been reported as occurring regularly (dark grey), seldom found (light grey), presence unknown (cross-hatched) and absent (white). Projection: Albers equal-area.
Table 1.
CLIMEX parameter values used for Thaumetopoea pityocampa. Parameter mnemonics are taken from Sutherst et al. (2007b).
Figure 3.
Europe showing known and potential range of occurrences of Thaumetopoea pityocampa.
Thaumetopoea pityocampa up to 1990 (black dots) and modelled climatic suitability for T. pityocampa under historical (1961–1990) climate averages as modelled using CLIMEX Ecoclimatic index (EI). Projection: Albers equal-area. Green triangles are locations from which impact data has been reported.
Figure 4.
Growth impacts from Thaumetopoea pityocampa as a function of climate suitability modelled using CLIMEX.
The location of sites with reported growth impacts used to develop the relationship are indicated in Figure 2.
Table 2.
Parameter values used in spread simulations using the spread model of Waage et al. [57].
Figure 5.
Global climate suitability for Thaumetopoea pityocampa modelled using CLIMEX Ecoclimatic index (EI).
Projection: Robinson.
Figure 6.
New Zealand map showing: (a) climatic suitability, by region, under current climate for Thaumetopoea pityocampa using CLIMEX Ecoclimatic Index (EI), and (b) existing (green) pine plantations [69].
Projection: New Zealand map grid.
Figure 7.
Change in area infested by Thaumetopoea pityocampa from the simulation start under the (a) no control (b) little control and (c) good control spread scenarios.
On all figures the lines represent trajectories from spread simulations showing the minimum, (filled circles), maximum (filled triangles), 5th (open triangles), 50th (open circles), and 95th (closed squares) percentiles. Note the variation in scale between figure panels.
Table 3.
Present value of damage to commercial forestry operations in New Zealand due to the spread of Thaumetopoea pityocampa over 30 years.
Figure 8.
Variation in simulated annual costs due to Thaumetopoea pityocampa (discounted back to simulation start) under scenarios assuming no control (closed circles) little control (open circles) and good control (closed triangles).
All scenarios used simulations with a median spread rate as sampled from the 50th percentile.