Figure 1.
Distribution of Lepus sp. in the Iberian Peninsula.
Current distribution of Lepus granantensis represented in UTM 10×10 km – grey – squares. Distribution ranges for sympatric hares species L. castroviejoi (blue triangles) and L. europaeus (red circles) in Spain are also displayed. Data were obtained from Almeida et al. [44] for Portugal and Palomo et al. [19] for Spain. Localities considered in the post-glacial colonization analyses (black circles) are also shown (data obtained from Tables S1 and S2 in Melo-Ferreira et al. [35]).
Table 1.
Variables used in the different models to study the Lepus granatensis distribution – past (P), present [explanatory] (E) and future (F) models – in the Iberian Peninsula.
Table 2.
Genetic differentiation (index 1/index 2) retrieved from mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) data available in Melo-Ferreira et al. [35], between each population and the studied potential refugia (localities coded as in Figure 1) using the native mtDNA type only and measured as population pairwise Fst (with negative values fitted to zero; index 1) and Fst/(1−Fst) (index 2).
Figure 2.
Cartographic representation of the statistical models.
Probability of Lepus granatensis occurrence in the Iberian Peninsula obtained from the different models (see Table 3). Arrows indicates the transference of the models to the past or future (A2 emissions scenario) time periods. Variation partitioning of the explanatory model is shown in the inset. Values in the diagrams are the percentages of variation in hare presence explained exclusively by topoclimate (TC), land-cover (L), other parapatric Lepus spp. (H) and by the combined effect of these factors.
Table 3.
Results of the explanatory model developed on the current distribution of Lepus granatensis (a), statistical models obtained for hindcasting to the past (b) and for extrapolation to the future (c) to predict the range of L. granatensis potentiality in these time periods.
Figure 3.
Calibration assessment of the statistical models.
Calibration plots showing the relationship between the predicted probability of occurrence for the models and the observed proportion of evaluation localities currently occupied by Lepus granatensis: a) explanatory model (see Table 3a), b) model hindcasting to the past (see Table 3b) and c) model to be extrapolated to the future (see Table 3c). Numbers represent the number of evaluation localities in each interval of probability.
Table 4.
Results of the linear regressions carried out to relate the genetic differentiation to a given population (potential refugium) and the geographical and ecological distances in order to test potential glacial refugia and postglacial centrifugal colonization.