Figure 1.
Histograms of a) number of papers per decade and b) number of starting careers per decade.
The publication year of a scientist's first paper is considered as the starting year of her career.
Figure 2.
Effect of removing authors with ambiguous names.
a) Cumulative distribution of the number of occurrences of family names in the author lists of distinct papers before the removal. b) Cumulative distribution of number of papers per scientists after removing ambiguous names.
Figure 3.
A schematic career for a scientist with
papers
. We consider her career from her first paper
. At prediction point
, we estimate the citations received in
of both past papers (
and
), and of future papers published in
(
). Paper
is a future paper which is not published in time-window
, and therefore excluded for the time-windows as defined by
and
.
Table 1.
Explained variance of future citations estimated by the average number of citations per paper (1st column), the
index (2nd column), the annual citations at the time of prediction
(3rd column), and all the
indicators (4th column).
Figure 4.
Explained variance of future citations.
Future citations of published papers (bottom) and of future papers in ,
, and
subsequent years (marked with paper selection time-windows in top
) for
to
years after the time of prediction were estimated. Explained variance by annual citations (
) in black; Extra explained variance by including the remaining indicators in red.
Table 2.
Future citations of published papers (Model and
) and future papers (Model
,
,
and
) at the time of prediction as estimated by the annual citations at the time of prediction.