Figure 1.
Diagram showing the structure of the population dynamics model for European wild rabbits.
Table 1.
Parameters of the rabbit population model.
Table 2.
Input parameter ranges used in the sensitivity analyses (Latin Hypercube sampling).
Table 3.
Results of the sensitivity analysis.
Table 4.
Parameter values and breeding season scenarios used to model rabbit population dynamics.
Table 5.
Impact of breeding season on population dynamics.
Figure 2.
Predicted breeding season patterns across Europe based on climatic projections from the RCAO regional model.
The top four Figures show the mean length (months) and coefficient of variation (CV, in %) for the control period (1961–1990). Lower Figures represent difference (in months: <1 (decrease), = 1 (unchanged) and >1(increase)) and changes in inter-annual variability (CVfuture/CVcontrol: <1 (decrease), = 1 (unchanged) and >1(increase)) from control to future climate according to two different GCM (HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC) and gas emission scenarios (A2 = High and B2 = Moderate). Areas outside current rabbit distribution are marked with dots.
Figure 3.
Effect of breeding season on population dynamics.
a) and c) show the relationship between population extinction risk and breeding season length and coefficient of variation respectively for an averaged effect of the other variables of the GLM. In the same way b) and d) describes how mean size of rabbit populations change as we vary the duration of the reproductive period and its interannual variability respectively. Solid lines represent the average effect while dotted lines delimit the 95% confidence interval.
Figure 4.
Climate change influence on population dynamics across current rabbit distribution.
a) Future trends in breeding seasons calculated using ensembles of both GCM and gas emission scenarios. b) Pattern of relative population sizes (population size (N) in each cell/overall mean population size) for the control period. c) Variations in population numbers with climate change (Nfuture/Ncontrol). d) Future changes in extinction probabilities of populations (Probfuture-Probcontrol).
Figure 5.
Association between the capacity of populations to recover after collapses and the length and CV of their breeding season.
Reduction in the population response time (days necessary to reach carrying capacity again) with increasing duration and decreasing interannual variability of the breeding season.