Figure 1.
Health states are further divided into age-, gender- and location-specific (urban and rural) submodels. Deaths from non-cardiovascular events are calculated from each compartment of the model at each time point in the simulation (not drawn). The transition probabilities between health states in the model are detailed in Tables S1, S2 and S3. Dietary salt reduction in the model lowers the risk of incident and recurrent myocardial infarction and stroke events. MI: myocardial infarction.
Table 1.
Model parameters and data sources.
Table 2.
Sensitivity analyses.
Figure 2.
Impact of salt reduction on cardiovascular events and deaths.
Projected Reductions in Cardiovascular Events Given a Dietary Salt Reduction Target of 3 g/day over 30 years (via a linear reduction in intake of 0.1 g/year) among Urban Men, Urban Women, Rural Men, and Rural Women, According to Age Cohort. Confidence intervals reflect 2 standard deviations around the mean result from 10,000 simulations. The estimated number of averted cases per year in each cohort (incorporating the population size and rate of events in each cohort) are provided in Table S7. Panel A: Change in new and recurrent MIs. Panel B: Change in new and recurrent strokes. Panel C: Change in deaths from MIs and strokes.