Table 1.
Description of key features of the five models.
Table 2.
Fixed parameter values for the five models.
Table 3.
Parameters estimated by fitting models to data on laboratory-confirmed RVGE cases in England and Wales.
Figure 1.
Fit of models to RVGE case reports from England and Wales.
(A) Mean annual size and timing of rotavirus epidemics in individuals (i) <5 years of age and (ii) ≥5 years of age. The solid black line represents the mean number of RVGE cases per week. Dashed lines show the minimum and maximum number of cases each week. Colored lines represent the fitted models: Model A (blue), Model B (yellow), Model C (green), Model D (purple), Model E (red). (B) Age distribution of reported rotavirus cases (bars) and the fitted models (colored lines).
Figure 2.
Short-term dynamics of rotavirus epidemics in the first 5 years after vaccine introduction.
(A) Weekly incidence of severe RVGE predicted for individuals <5 years of age, scaled by peak pre-vaccination incidence, for the following scenarios: (i) 70% coverage with a vaccine that confers immunity comparable to primary infection following first dose at 2 months of age (82% efficacy) (scenario 1); (ii) 90% coverage under scenario 1; (iii) 70% coverage with a vaccine that confers immunity comparable to one natural infection following each dose at 2 and 4 months of age (99% efficacy) (scenario 2); and (iv) 90% coverage under scenario 2. (B) Incidence of severe RVGE predicted in individuals ≥5 years of age under coverage scenarios (i–iv) for Model A (blue), Model B (yellow), and Model C (green), Model D (purple), Model E (red).
Figure 3.
Short-term impact of vaccination on the cumulative incidence of severe RVGE predicted by the models.
The relative cumulative incidence of severe RVGE after versus before vaccine introduction in individuals (i) <5 years of age, (ii) ≥5 years of age, and (iii) all age groups over the first (A) 1 year, (B) 2 years, and (C) 5 years after vaccine introduction are presented for scenarios 1 and 2 at 70% and 90% coverage. Black bars represent the direct effects of vaccination (see Text S1), while the colored bars represent the model projections: Model A (blue), Model B (yellow), Model C (green), Model D (purple), Model E (red). The y-axis is truncated at 1.1; where the bars exceed this threshold, i.e. for Model E in panel (C,ii), the red numbers indicate the relative cumulative incidence.
Figure 4.
Long-term impact of vaccination on the incidence of severe RVGE predicted by the models.
The reduction in the incidence of severe RVGE during a 10-year period beginning 10 years after vaccine introduction, as compared to the mean pre-vaccination incidence, is plotted for coverage levels from 0 to 100%. The panels represent the reduction in incidence of severe RVGE under (A) scenario 1: vaccination is assumed to confer immunity comparable to primary infection following the first dose at 2 months of age (82% efficacy), and (B) scenario 2: vaccination is assumed to confer immunity comparable to one natural infection following each dose at 2 and 4 months of age (99% efficacy), for (i) <5 years of age, (ii) ≥5 years of age, and (iii) all age groups. Black dashed lines represent the direct effect of vaccination (see Text S1), while solid colored lines represent the model projections: Model A (blue), Model B (yellow), Model C (green), Model D (purple), Model E (red).