Figure 1.
Spatial domains of environmental indicators.
Shaded or hatched areas represent spatial domains of indicators representing areal averages or pertaining to a broad area, and blue dots represent locations of indicators corresponding to specific sites. Key shows geographic descriptions, and legend on lower-right shows corresponding indicators; compare to Figs. 2–3 and Table 1.
Figure 2.
Projected 2010–2099 changes in annual mean values of nine environmental indicators for the A2 (red lines) and B1 (blue lines) scenarios compared to modeled and observed values during the 1970–1999 baseline period (left panels).
The indicators measure changes in regional climate, regional hydrology, and habitat quality in the San Francisco Estuary-Watershed system. The GFDL-A2 and PCM-B1 “historical” data represent simulated realizations of possible climates constrained only by historical GHG forcing, and thus are not expected to track observed historical variability on a year-to-year basis.
Figure 3.
Projected 2010–2099 changes in nine environmental indicators, expressed as median trend per decade, for the A2 scenario (red) and B1 scenario (blue).
Statistically significant (p<0.05) trends are indicated with solid circles; horizontal lines show 95% confidence limits of the trend estimates.
Table 1.
Environmental indicators analyzed directly (top 10; see Figs. 2–3) or exceedences of thresholds (bottom 4; see Fig. 4), with corresponding spatial domains (see Fig. 1), units of measurement, and social/ecological significance.
Figure 4.
Projected 2010–2099 changes in the occurrence of extreme environmental conditions in the San Francisco Estuary-Watershed system for the A2 (left) and B1 (right) scenarios.
The indicators count projected exceedences each decade of threshold values based on historical extreme water elevation or having significance for sustainability of native species of fish (lethal water temperatures) or habitat restoration through management of floodplain habitats.