Figure 1.
Age-specific infection rate profiles for seasonal and A/H1N1 2009 influenza used to calibrate age-specific susceptibility.
The proportion of each age group infected in a baseline (unmitigated) epidemic is shown for seasonal influenza and for A/H1N1 2009. In both cases age demographics are those of the Albany model, and final infection rates are 17% (corresponding to a 13% final illness attack rate).
Figure 2.
Outcome of six antiviral intervention strategies as a function of diagnosis delay.
Three outcomes are reported: (A) cumulative illness attack rate, (B) peak daily incidence (per 10,000 population), and (C) number of antiviral courses used as a percentage of the population size. We assumed that antiviral treatment or prophylaxis began at the time diagnosis was made and that 50% of symptomatic cases would be diagnosed.
Figure 3.
Outcome of six antiviral intervention strategies as a function of diagnosis coverage.
Three outcomes are reported: (A) cumulative illness attack rate, (B) peak daily incidence (per 10,000 population), and (C) number of antiviral courses used as a percentage of the population size. We simulated percentages of symptomatic individuals being diagnosed ranging from 10% to 100% in 10% increments. We assumed that the delay between symptoms appearing and antiviral treatment or treatment plus prophylaxis was 24 hours.
Figure 4.
Daily incidence epidemic curves for various delays in antiviral treatment and/or prophylaxis.
Interventions are abbreviated as follows: treatment only (T), household prophylaxis (H), extended prophylaxis (E), 4 weeks school closure (SC). We assumed that 50% of symptomatic cases would be diagnosed. Schools were assumed to close upon the diagnosis of 3 cases in the school for a period of two weeks. Each school closed a maximum of 2 times for a total of 4 weeks.
Figure 5.
Daily incidence epidemic curves for various diagnosis coverages.
Interventions are abbreviated as follows: treatment only (T), household prophylaxis (H), extended prophylaxis (E), 4 weeks school closure (SC). We assumed that the delay between symptoms appearing and antiviral treatment or treatment plus prophylaxis was 24 hours. Schools were assumed to close upon the diagnosis of 3 cases in the school for a period of two weeks. Each school closed a maximum of 2 times for a total of 4 weeks.
Table 1.
Outcome of antiviral epidemic measures with various diagnosis delays and coverages.
Table 2.
Outcome of antiviral epidemic measures for epidemics with various reproduction numbers
Table 3.
Degradation in antiviral effectiveness due to diagnosis delay for epidemics with various reproduction numbers.
Table 4.
Maximum antiviral usage for epidemics with various reproduction numbers