Table 1.
Accuracy Metrics for the current predicted distributions from each GARP experiment.
Figure 1.
Current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis using climate data at 55 km2.
(A) current geographic distribution, (B) A2 future climate scenario, (C) B2 future climate scenario. Color ramp indicates model agreement, with darker areas representing areas with high model agreement or greater confidence in the GARP prediction.
Figure 2.
Comparison of predicted B. anthracis habitat changes from both climate scenarios using five variables at a resolution of 55 km2.
Potential future habitat changes based on the A2 climate change scenario (A) and the B2 climate change scenario (B). Differences between each climate change scenario (C).
Table 2.
A comparison of habitat change (%) between SRES A2 and B2 climate change scenarios for each GARP experiment.
Figure 3.
Current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis using climate data at 8 km2.
(A) current geographic distribution, (B) A2 future climate scenario, (C) B2 future climate scenario. Color ramp indicates model agreement, with darker areas representing areas with high model agreement or greater confidence in the GARP prediction.
Figure 4.
Comparison of predicted B. anthracis habitat changes from both climate scenarios using five variables at a resolution of 8 km2.
Potential future habitat changes based on the A2 climate change scenario (A) and the B2 climate change scenario (B). Differences between each climate change scenario (C).
Figure 5.
Current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis using BioClim variables at 8 km2.
(A) current geographic distribution, (B) A2 future climate scenario, (C) B2 future climate scenario. Color ramp indicates model agreement, with darker areas representing areas with high model agreement or greater confidence in the GARP prediction.
Figure 6.
Comparison of predicted B. anthracis habitat changes from both climate scenarios using BioClim variables at 8 km2.
Potential future habitat changes based on the A2 climate change scenario (A) and the B2 climate change scenario (B). Differences between each climate change scenario (C).
Figure 7.
Map of Kazakhstan with anthrax locality data.
Training data (green) were used to build models while independent data (yellow) were used to evaluate model accuracy. Inset A illustrates where all anthrax outbreaks occurred between 1960 and 2000. Inset B illustrates training and independent data used for building models at 8 km2 spatial resolution. Inset C illustrates training and independent data used for building models at a resolution of 55 km2.
Table 3.
Environmental variables used for BioClim GARP models.