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Figure 1.

Structure of SIR model.

Shown are the various population compartments as people move through the Susceptible → Infected → Recovered states. Yellow denotes susceptible, green infected and blue recovered.

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Table 1.

Key infection parameter values.*

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Figure 2.

Impact of different pre-season vaccination rates on seasonal influenza outbreak curves.

In these scenarios all vaccine was administered pre-season.

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Figure 3.

Influenza outbreak curves with varying pre-season and delayed vaccination rates.

For all scenarios the total vaccination rate was 40%. Shown are examples with delayed (ie in-season) vaccination occurring 30 days (3a) or 42 days (3b) after the onset of the outbreak. Pre-season vaccination rates = 40% minus delayed vaccination rate.

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Figure 3 Expand

Table 2.

Impact of varying pre-season, delayed, and total vaccination rates on influenza outbreaks.*

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Table 2 Expand

Figure 4.

Impact of adding delayed (i.e., in-season) vaccination to pre-season vaccination on total attack rates during influenza outbreaks.

Shown are total attack rates for varying levels of pre-season vaccination and delayed (ie in-season) vaccination. In-season vaccination was assumed to occur either 30 or 42 delays after the onset of the outbreak. Total vaccination rates can be calculated by taking the sum of the indicated pre-season rate and delayed vaccination rate.

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Table 3.

Sensitivity analyses exploring the impact of changing selected parameter values on the model results.*

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