Figure 1.
To begin to understand the trends in the changes in the Outbreak Response Immunization Threshold (ORIT), I calculate the ORIT, using the Threshold Model, at several points during the 2003 RMI measles outbreak.
I also graph the fraction of the population immunized during the outbreak.
Figure 2.
This figure presents a graphical depiction of the comparison between the Recursive Prediction of the Outbreak Response Immunization Threshold Algorithm (RPORITA) prediction for the Outbreak Response Immunization Threshold (ORIT) and the Threshold Model estimation based on direct data input.
I apply the RPORITA to both the 2006 Fiji measles outbreak (A) and the 2003 RMI measles outbreak (B). I show the RPORITA prediction generated with each prediction day difference (PDD).
Table 1.
Comparison of the RPORITA-generated predictions for the ORIT and ORIT approximations based on direct input of survey data for the 2006 Fiji measles outbreak.
Table 2.
Comparison of RPORITA-generated predictions for the ORIT and ORIT approximations based on direct input of survey data for the 2003 RMI measles outbreak.
Table 3.
Data demonstrating the two key relationships concerning RPORITA prediction error for the 2006 Fiji measles outbreak.
Table 4.
Data demonstrating the two key relationships concerning RPORITA prediction error for the 2003 RMI measles outbreak.