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Cascading dominates large-scale disruptions in transport over complex networks
Fig 5
Predictability performance of the model.
Panel (a), above diagonal: Mitigation measure 
(blue), where both the model initialisation time t0 and crew activity time t are read from the horizontal axis. Panel (a), below diagonal: Model performance 
(red), plotted similarly to 
, but times are read from the vertical axis. See also text for details. The contours 
and 
are marked respectively in blue and red lines. The data in this panel is smoothened using a Gaussian-averaging for visualisation purposes. Panel (b): Horizons for P (blue) and C (red) for the same three values of c and p as in panel (a), measured as the horizontal and vertical distances to the diagonal of the P and C contours, respectively. Panel (c)-(f): Model performance 
(horizontal) versus crew schedule invariance 
(vertical) on multiple instances of the day (t = 11:00h, 12:00h, …, 22:00h), with various lead times (t0 up to 1.5 hours before t), for the Green, Neutral, Red and Black days also analysed in Fig 4—16 days in total. Colours depict lead time: red indicates small lead times (i.e., predictions are closely up front), blue indicates large lead times. Averages on 15 min intervals are shown in large circles, with extra emphasis on the C values of these averages for 15 min and 30 min lead times (marked at bottom of each panel). Calculations of 
and 
are performed at t0 = 6-minutes time resolution [15 minutes for (c)-(f)], with a 30-minutes window around t.
doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246077.g005