Cascading dominates large-scale disruptions in transport over complex networks
Fig 3
Model simulations of a real situation.
Comparison of simulation and observed data on 11 December 2017. All models were initialised with the system snapshot at 19:00h. Panels (a) and (b) show the spatial distribution of delay at 20:00h in the real data (a) and simulation outcome of the trilayer model (b). Panel (c) shows the total delay evolution in time for the observed data and simulation outcomes of the three models. The trilayer model predicts the total delay well up to 120 minutes, after which it decays while in reality the total delay increased again. The differences between the monolayer model and the bi-/trilayer models stem from delay cascading, built in the latter ones. Only delays larger than 3 minutes are shown for visualisation purposes.