Using a Bayesian network to understand the importance of coastal storms and undeveloped landscapes for the creation and maintenance of early successional habitat
Fig 10
Proposed relationship between the density of human development across a barrier island and the amount of early successional habitat created by a single low intensity (blue line) or high intensity (red line) storm event.
In this relationship, no single storm event will have a major impact on the amount of early successional habitat on low elevation, undeveloped islands because smaller intensity storms maintain maximum amounts of habitat through time. A single storm will also have a minor impact on habitat on islands with a high density of human development because shoreline modifications prevent overwash and encourage erosion, minimizing the ‘opportunity space’ for new habitats to be created. On high elevation, undeveloped islands (dashed lines) or on islands with moderate levels of development (middle of x-axis), less frequent high-intensity storms are needed to create overwash and new habitats; however, undeveloped stretches of shoreline provide opportunities for habitat to be created. As a result, a large storm like Hurricane Sandy can have a major impact in the amount of habitat available.