The Changing Strength and Nature of Fire-Climate Relationships in the Northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008
Fig 5
Variability in the strength and nature of fire-climate relationships through time.
(A) Annual area burned in linear and log-transformed space (baseline = series-wide average; thick black line = period averages, as in Fig 3). (B) The changing strength of fire-climate relationships (r2 or R2adj) for each 21-yr model. Metrics with the highest explanatory power are labeled, and the length of each overlapping calibration period is represented in the lower right of the panel (“Calib. window”). (C) Changing skill of fire-climate relationships, CE, as in (B). (D) Changing nature of fire-climate relationships, illustrated by varying model parameters through time. The y-axis is the standardized β1 parameter (for univariate models) or β1, β2 or β3 parameter for the three-variable models (illustrated by dashed lines), with mean 0, and standard deviation 1. Positive values represent a positive influence on area burned. Metrics are ordered from top to bottom based on the overall model score (Table 2).