Using machine learning to forecast peak health care service demand in real-time during the 2022–23 winter season: A pilot in England, UK

• Roger A. Morbey ,

  Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Project administration, Software, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

  * E-mail: roger.morbey@ukhsa.gov.uk

  Affiliation Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team, Field Services, Health Protection Operations, UK Health Security Agency, Birmingham, United Kingdom

  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8543-477X

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• Dan Todkill,

  Roles Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Project administration, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliations Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team, Field Services, Health Protection Operations, UK Health Security Agency, Birmingham, United Kingdom, Health Sciences, Warwick Medical School, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom

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• Phil Moura,

  Roles Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Department of Health and Social Care, London, United Kingdom

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• Liam Tollinton,

  Roles Software, Validation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Health Analytics and Automation, Data Analytics and Surveillance, UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom

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• Andre Charlett,

  Roles Validation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Statistics, Modelling and Economics Division, UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom

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• Conall Watson,

  Roles Validation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Immunisation and Vaccine Preventable Diseases Division, UK Health Security Agency, London, United Kingdom

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• Alex J. Elliot

  Roles Conceptualization, Supervision, Validation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team, Field Services, Health Protection Operations, UK Health Security Agency, Birmingham, United Kingdom

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