Principal investigators over-optimistically forecast scientific and operational outcomes for clinical trials

• Daniel M. Benjamin,

  Roles Data curation, Formal analysis, Methodology, Visualization, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Huizenga College of Business and Entrepreneurship, Nova Southeastern University, Ft Lauderdale, FL, United States of America

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• Spencer P. Hey,

  Roles Methodology, Software, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Center for Bioethics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, United States of America

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• Amanda MacPherson,

  Roles Data curation, Formal analysis, Project administration, Visualization, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Studies in Translation, Ethics and Medicine, Biomedical Ethics Unit, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada

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• Yasmina Hachem,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Studies in Translation, Ethics and Medicine, Biomedical Ethics Unit, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada

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• Kara S. Smith,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Studies in Translation, Ethics and Medicine, Biomedical Ethics Unit, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada

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• Sean X. Zhang,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Studies in Translation, Ethics and Medicine, Biomedical Ethics Unit, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada

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• Sandy Wong,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Studies in Translation, Ethics and Medicine, Biomedical Ethics Unit, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada

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• Samantha Dolter,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Studies in Translation, Ethics and Medicine, Biomedical Ethics Unit, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada

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• David R. Mandel,

  Roles Conceptualization, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation York University, Toronto, ON, Canada

  https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1036-2286

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• Jonathan Kimmelman

  Roles Conceptualization, Funding acquisition, Supervision, Writing – original draft

  * E-mail: Jonathan.kimmelman@mcgill.ca

  Affiliation Studies in Translation, Ethics and Medicine, Biomedical Ethics Unit, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada

  https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1614-6779

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