Tracing day-zero and forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: A compartmental modelling and numerical optimization approach

• Lucia Russo,

  Roles Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto delle Scienze e delle Tecnologie per l’Energia e la Mobilità Sostenibile, Napoli, Italy

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• Cleo Anastassopoulou,

  Roles Data curation, Investigation, Validation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Department of Microbiology, Medical School, University of Athens, Athens, Greece

  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7666-9198

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• Athanasios Tsakris,

  Roles Investigation, Validation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Department of Microbiology, Medical School, University of Athens, Athens, Greece

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• Gennaro Nicola Bifulco,

  Roles Data curation, Investigation, Validation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile, Edile e Ambientale, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Napoli, Italy

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• Emilio Fortunato Campana,

  Roles Formal analysis, Investigation, Validation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Dipartimento di Ingegneria, ICT e Tecnologie per l’Energia e i Trasporti, Roma, Italy

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• Gerardo Toraldo,

  Roles Formal analysis, Investigation, Validation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università degli Studi della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli, Caserta, Italy

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• Constantinos Siettos

  Roles Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Validation, Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing

  * E-mail: constantinos.siettos@unina.it

  Affiliation Dipartimento di Matematica e Applicazioni “Renato Caccioppoli”, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Napoli, Italy

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9568-3355

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