I am delighted to have been directed to this article by The Nature Conservancy November 2015 newsletter. You had the analytical tools and research backing that I lacked in making a presentation, at the IAIA conference in Italy in 2015, on the same subject but focusing on Africa and the threat to biodiversity due solely to developments in the energy sector. [I am pleased to have my suspicions regarding the extent of probable habitat change in Africa corroborated by your data and analysis.] There is an excellent publication - African Energy Atlas - that collates all energy development proposals per country. What emerged to me - more than terrestrial biome threats - was the huge threat to river ecosystems from hydropower development. Moreover, your urbanisation and agriculture projections alone will require massive water resources development ie engineering, and draining of wetland areas across the planet, and such developments are always accompanied by declines in aquatic ecosystem productivity and biodiversity. It would be interesting if you could follow up this paper with one on threats to aquatic ecosystems [there was one review done in 2010 - Vörösmarty CJ, PB McIntyre, MO Gesssner, D Dudgeon, A Prusevich, P Green, S Glidden, SE Bunn, CS Sullivan, C Reidy Liermann & PM Davies (2010) Global threats to human water security and river biodiversity. Nature Vol 467. 560; and http://www.iucnredlist.or...].
On the paper itself: I am surprised that you rate the threats to the Congo River basin as Low and Negligible, since this is the LAST major rainforest area left in Africa - the forests in West Africa are dessimated already. Having done a lot of work in the DRC over some time, I think you may have underestimated the threats. There are major mineral and now oil and gas resources within the basin that multi-nationals are lining up to get their hands on - and human population growth alone - with the match and machete - is bringing about forest transformation into savanna and grassland over large areas of the southern, eastern and northern edges of the forests, rapidly gnawing away at it. Hydropower proposals on rivers throughout the basin will open up previously inaccessible parts to rapid colonisation and conversion to agricultural lands. The Congo basin is, to my mind, one of the forthcoming battle fronts in ecosystem conservation vs development: since 80% of the rainfall in the basin is auto-generated, draining of its vast central swamps and transformation of its forest ecosystems will bring about climate change in central Africa with potentially catastrophic consequences for large numbers of people, let alone the extraordinary biodiversity of the region. It look forward to further analyses of this sort. Viva The Nature Conservancy!