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closeReferee Comments: Referee 3 (Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner)
Posted by PLOS_ONE_Group on 12 May 2008 at 17:56 GMT
Referee 3's review (Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner):
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N.B. These are the comments made by the referee when reviewing an earlier version of this paper. Prior to publication, the manuscript has been revised in light of these comments and to address other editorial requirements.
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The Wong et al manuscript is very interesting and would make a good addition to the literature with minor revisions. Below are a few suggestions to the authors:
1. The abstract should be clearer and use parallel text to that of the main body of the manuscript. Authors should also attempt to change most sentences to active voice for clarity. There are several run-on sentences, colloquialisms, and dangling modifiers that could use editing to clarify findings.
2. Authors should briefly provide details about the LIMOR study as readers will require this information to contextualize the data. Although the LIMOR study is referenced, I was distracted by the lack of information about the parent study.
3. The authors indicated that questions about physical exercise date to a time period "about ten years before their death." I did not understand if authors meant that informants were asked about decedents exercise habits during the ten years prior to their death (a ten year history) or about decedents exercise habits ten years prior to the death (as a cross-sectional view or snapshot ten years prior). I suspect from the data analysis that authors asked about exercise during the past ten years but they should state explicitly the actual language used during the interviews.
4. I was unclear as to the exact variables that went into the logistic models as this is not the typical Boolean model of dead/alive = α + β1(E) + β2(smoking) + etc. Stating the explicit models used may clarify the analyses.
5. I was distracted by the use of the terms "risk" during the odds ratio discussion and "sensitivity" during in the first paragraph of the section called "Statistical Analysis", subsection "Influenza epidemic." I would suggest that authors use alternate terms for precision.
6. I really liked the authors' attempts to account for a variety of potential interaction terms. Was there any data available on decedent's influenza vaccination status during the year of their death?
7. I am concerned about the authors' suggestion that people older than 65 years may need to exercise less than frequently. While the findings are compelling, there are many potential confounders that have not been examined (e.g. vaccination status, etc.). I would more comfortable if the discussion section acknowledge the limitations of the analyses, the need for further studies, and the complexity of the risk/benefit of exercise as well as the need for increasing vaccination coverage. It would make more sense to me to see the authors recommend moderate exercise coupled with increase vaccination coverage.
8. While it is interesting to see the authors first time use of population based data, I would encouraged them to explicitly state that the decedents are not linked to influenza sampling early in the manuscript. In addition, they should discuss the inherent limitations of mortality data de-linked from individual influenza sample data.
9. I would recommend that authors consider deleting part 'a" of table 1 as this data is also presented as figure 1. I am uncertain of the origin of the p values in section "c" of table 1 as it would seem that Chi squares would originate from bivariate analyses. Some of these comparisons would seem more appropriate for ANOVAs or something akin to them. Disaggregating the findings of E1 and E2 may also help. Clarifying what is being compared may help. It is also difficult to visualize the difference between E1 and E2 in Figure 2. I would also recommend deleting appendix 1 as it seems unnecessary.
10. I do not understand why influenza intensity was presented "as a percentage per 10% increase of influenza." It would seem that these regression models could use influenza intensity as a continuous independent variable.
11. The first sentence of the second paragraph of the discussion section seems awkward.
12. The third paragraph suggests that the interaction between exercise and immune function is clearly understood (i.e. "can be explained..."). I would suggest the use of more cautious language. While many in-roads have been made on this subject, there is much about causality that needs to be learned.
Good work and good luck with the revisions.
RE: Referee Comments: Referee 3 (Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner)
HKLAI replied to PLOS_ONE_Group on 19 May 2008 at 02:47 GMT
REPLY to 1: We have now modified the styles and used active voices in many sentences, and have revised the texts according to the reviewer’s suggestions.
REPLY to 2: We have now included details about LIMOR study. (See Introduction 2nd paragraph, Method 1st and 5th paragraph)
REPLY to 3: We were assessing the decedent’s exercise habits ten years before their death (i.e. around the year in 1988) by asking the decedents’ close relatives. This is a cross-sectional view ten years prior to death rather than a ten-year history of exercise habit. We chose to ask about the habit ten years before death to avoid any change in habits as a result of any disease development that eventually led to death. This is to minimize the possibility of reverse causation. We have now stated explicitly the actual language used during the interviews. (See Method 1st and 5th paragraph)
REPLY to 4: In a stratified subset of data for assessment of excess mortality due to influenza intensity in exercise sub-groups, we used Poisson regression with daily number of deaths as the dependent variable and time varying covariates as independent variables to control for time trend and seasonality, and time varying confounding. As all the subjects were deceased persons, we did not use the model for dead/alive. But instead we modeled the variations of daily number of deaths with variations in influenza intensity. We then modeled the difference in excess mortality between exercise groups by means of case only logistic regression in the combined dataset. This was done by using logistic regression with logit function of exercise status as the dependent variable and influenza intensity variable together with confounding variables for individual subjects as the independent variables. The coefficient corresponding to the influenza intensity variable is used to assess interaction between effects of exercise and influenza (or interpreted as the difference in excess mortality between exercise groups). We have now stated the models explicitly. (See Method 6th and 7th paragraph).
REPLY to 5: We have now modified the term “risk” to “odds” and deleted “sensitivity” in that sentence appropriately.
REPLY to 6: We have looked at the availability of such data but it was not reported elsewhere in 1998 and before. Influenza vaccination became more available to the general public only after 2000 particularly after the SARS epidemic in Hong Kong. It was not a free vaccine available to the elderly before 1998. We have adjusted for most potential covariates (which are equivalent to interaction variables in case only logistic regression) available to use for the analysis.
REPLY to 7: We have revised and explicitly stated clearly that our findings suggest that older people are recommended to do moderate exercise during influenza epidemics and do not suggest that they can ignore the potential benefit of vaccination. We clarified that doing more exercises under normal circumstances may be beneficial.
REPLY to 8: We have now explicitly stated that the analysis was based on a database of a large case-control study of lifestyle and mortality (LIMOR study) in 1998 and ANOTHER database of influenza activity during the same period. (SEE Introduction 2nd paragraph)
REPLY to 9: We have deleted ‘table 1a’ as suggested. We have also checked again our Chi-square tests that they were properly carried out. We have also made it clear that each p-value is resulted from the Chi-square test of a 2x3 table. We would use ANOVA if we were comparing continuous variables between two or more groups.
REPLY to 10: Yes, influenza intensity is a continuous variable defined as the proportion of specimens positive for influenza isolates. In 1998, the mean influenza intensity was 10%, we therefore presented the excess risk of mortality per 10% increase. In our previous publications on the health impact of influenza we also presented the excess risk in term of per 10% increase. Thus presenting these results in the same way would enhance the readability of the estimates.
REPLY to 11: We have now re-phrased it.
REPLY to 12: We have now re-phrased it.
Thanks for reviewed our paper and provided your valuable comments.
Best wishes,
Wong CM et al