Reviewer 1's Review (Duane Gubler):

“This paper is the culmination of several years of work by Dr. Randolph and her students. It was well-conceived and thought out, and addresses a very important scientific issue of current political and economic interest; that is whether the global warming trend of the past few decades is responsible for the increased incidence and epidemic activity caused by emerging infectious diseases, as claimed by many scientists and politicians. Their data clearly demonstrate that while temperature is an important factor in TBE epidemiology, the transmission cycle and thus disease incidence of TBE is complex and dependent upon the interaction of the hosts, vector and the environment. Their data support the conclusion others have made, that demographic, societal, human behavioral, environmental, and economic factors are more important than increased temperature in the emergence of infectious diseases.

The paper addresses the hypothesis that increased temperature associated with global climate change is responsible for the increased incidence of TBE in Europe. Three Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were used as case studies to compare TBE incidence with variation in temperature over a 35 year period from 1970 to 2004. They concluded that the changes in temperature could not explain the increased disease incidence. Rather, they speculate that political, economic, demographic and other societal factors associated with freedom from Soviet rule, not increased temperature, were the principal factors responsible for the increased incidence of TBE seen in these three countries in recent years.

The paper is well written, with a detailed discussion of each of the factors that could influence disease transmission.”

N.B. These are the general comments made by the reviewer when reviewing this paper in light of which the manuscript was revised. Specific points addressed during revision of the paper are not shown.