Limitations of our analyses
http://plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0029332#article1.body1.sec4.sec1.p1

From an economic perspective, the most serious shortcoming of the Lindsey et al. model is the omission of substitution between lion hunts and hunts of other species. By comparing revenue under current off-take with industry revenue minus lion hunting revenue, without consideration of what hunters might hunt instead of lions, they assume that the entire revenue from lion hunts is lost from the industry. This assumption means that as opportunities for lion hunting decrease, the would-be lion hunter desists from hunting entirely. This seems unlikely as lion hunters are likely to be committed and experienced hunters, who will most likely choose to hunt another animal rather than finding another hobby.

We know of no study that has quantified substitution between species for African trophy hunting. The existence of a high degree of substitution for lions is suggested, however, by Lindsey et al. (2006) who investigated which species aroused the interest of both prospective Africa hunters and more experienced hunters. They found that lions ranked fourth behind buffalo, kudu and leopard for preferred species among first time Africa hunters and behind buffalo, leopard and equal with rare antelope among more experienced Africa hunters.

The omission of any substitution has large implications for Lindsey et al.’s conclusions that significant areas of viable hunting blocks may become financially unviable under a no lion hunting scenario. Even small degrees of substitution would have similar effects to the reduced lion hunting scenario, where decreases in financially viable hunting areas are only 2%. As the most likely situation under proposed regulatory changes is similar to the reduced lion hunting scenario including any substitution by affected hunters would replace net income and likely keep financially viable areas close to current levels.

Lindsey, P. A., R. Alexander, L. G. Frank, A. Mathieson, and S. S. Romanach. 2006. “Potential of trophy hunting to create incentives for wildlife conservation in Africa where alternative wildlife-based land uses may not be viable.” Animal Conservation 9 (3) (August): 283-291.