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reference

Posted by psendi on 01 Feb 2007 at 22:49 GMT

To calculate the posterior probability with a non-informative prior, the number of observations in each cell with an allowed transition is increased by one.
http://plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0000173#article1.body1.sec5.supplementary-material1.caption1.p1

see reference 45