Using Extreme Value Theory Approaches to Forecast the Probability of Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Influenza in Zhejiang, China

Jiangpeng Chen; Xun Lei; Li Zhang; Bin Peng

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0118521

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Open Access

Peer-reviewed

Research Article

Using Extreme Value Theory Approaches to Forecast the Probability of Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Influenza in Zhejiang, China

Jiangpeng Chen,

Affiliation Department of Health Statistics and Information Management, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
⨯
Xun Lei,

Affiliation Department of Health Statistics and Information Management, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
⨯
Li Zhang,

Affiliation Department of Health Statistics and Information Management, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
⨯
Bin Peng

* E-mail: pengbin@cqmu.edu.cn

Affiliation Department of Health Statistics and Information Management, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
⨯

Using Extreme Value Theory Approaches to Forecast the Probability of Outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Influenza in Zhejiang, China

Jiangpeng Chen,
Xun Lei,
Li Zhang,
Bin Peng

Published: February 24, 2015
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118521

About the Authors

Jiangpeng Chen

Affiliation Department of Health Statistics and Information Management, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China

Xun Lei

Affiliation Department of Health Statistics and Information Management, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China

Li Zhang

Affiliation Department of Health Statistics and Information Management, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China

Bin Peng

* E-mail: pengbin@cqmu.edu.cn

Affiliation Department of Health Statistics and Information Management, School of Public Health and Management, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China

Competing Interests

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Author Contributions

Conceived and designed the experiments: BP JPC. Performed the experiments: BP JPC XL LZ. Analyzed the data: BP JPC XL LZ. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: BP. Wrote the paper: BP JPC XL LZ.

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Influenza
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Pathogens
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Influenza A virus
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Forecasting
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Epidemiological methods and statistics
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