Table 1.
Summary statistics of displaced and non-displaced for reasons to leave (2018–2022).
Fig 1.
Circular mobility flows: Self-reported displacement across the Greater horn of Africa (2018–2022).
Notes: This figure presents the mobility flows of 10,494 self-reported displaced individuals across the Greater horn of Africa between 2018 and 2022. We follow the strategy and R codes developed by [56]. Origin and destination countries are indicated in the segments around the figure. Flow values are divided by 1000.
Fig 2.
Density plot: Climate indicators by displaced and non-displaced individuals (2018–2022).
Notes: This Fig shows two density plots of disparities in climate indicators between self-reported displaced (straight line) and non-displaced individuals (dotted line). The sample includes individuals surveyed between 2018–2022. The result of the Kolmogorovov–Smirnov (K–S) test is reported on the top-left of each panel.
Fig 3.
Scatter plot: Climate indicators and displacement in the horn of Africa (2018–2022).
Notes: This figure presents the scatter plot of country average rainfall anomalies (top left), PDSI (top right), SPEI (bottom left) and temperature anomalies (bottom right) against the percentage of self-reported displaced people from South Sudan, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the United Republic of Tanzania and Ethiopia (in red). The sample includes individuals surveyed between 2018-2022.
Table 2.
LPM: The effect of PDSI on displacement (2018–2022).
Fig 4.
Coefficient plot: The effect of positive and negative PDSI on displacement (2018–2022).
Notes: This Fig shows the correlation between categories of the PDSI and self-reported displacement. The sample includes individuals surveyed between 2018–2022. The dependent variable is a dummy equal to 1 if individuals self-report as displaced. The main variable of interest is a set of dummy variables that take the value 1 if the condition is satisfied (e.g., extreme dry) and 0 otherwise. The PDSI is categorised as extremely dry (PDSI <–3), dry (–3< PDSI <0), wet (0< PDSI <3), or extremely wet (PDSI >3), relative to the long-run mean. Each row corresponds to a separate OLS regression in which the dependent variable is self-reported displacement and the independent variable is the category shown on the y-axis. Variable definitions are provided in Sect 3. Each regression includes control variables, region fixed effects, and year fixed effects. Confidence intervals are 90% and robust standard errors are clustered at the regional level.
Table 3.
LPM: Sub-sample analysis to test floods impacts on displacement in agricultural areas (2018–2022).
Table 4.
Linear Probability Model: Mediation analysis (2018–2022).
Fig 5.
Coefficient plot: The heterogeneous effect of the PDSI on displacement (2018–2022).
Notes: This Fig shows heterogeneous associations between the PDSI and self-reported displacement. The sample includes individuals surveyed between 2018–2022. The dependent variable is a dummy equal to 1 if an individual self-reports as displaced. The main variable of interest is the PDSI index interacted with the characteristic shown on the y-axis (each row corresponds to a separate OLS regression). Variable definitions are provided in Sect 3. Each regression includes control variables, region fixed effects, and year fixed effects. Confidence intervals are 90% and robust standard errors are clustered at the regional level. The PDSI categories are extremely dry (PDSI <–3), dry (–3< PDSI <0), wet (0< PDSI <3), or extremely wet (PDSI >3), relative to the long-run mean.