Fig 1.
A visual representation of the three main stages which form the methods of this study.
Stage one estimates the baseline ERFs, stage two then transforms these functions to obtain projections based on socioeconomic projections, finally stage three combines these with projected population and temperature data within a HIA to obtain estimates of the future heat-related mortality burden.
Fig 2.
Illustration of projecting the ERF with an RR ratio (blue) versus a constant adaptation factor (green).
Constant adaptation factors tend to overestimate differences in ERFs at low exposure and underestimate differences at high exposures compared to RR ratios derived from observed differences in ERFs. Note: this figure is a sketch and is not based on real data.
Table 1.
Summary of the UK-SSP storyline with reference to their implications to heat adaptation and the RCPs consistent with each SSP.
Fig 3.
Descriptive plot showing the change in the number of hot days compared to the baseline period for each of the regions of England and Wales under the four RCPs for the 2060s.
Fig 4.
Descriptive plot showing the change in the population compared to the baseline period for each of the regions of England and Wales under the 5 SSPs for the 2060s.
Fig 5.
Descriptive plot showing the change is broken down into the four age categories.
C: The adaptive capacity index plotted for each decade and region for the 5 SSPs.
Fig 6.
Collection of plots showing the modification of the RRs by the risk ratios extracted from the observed period, an illustration for the West Midlands region, similar plots for the remaining regions are included in.
S3 Text. A: Plot showing the variation of the RRs over the observed period for the West Midland region. This is a snapshot of the temperature specific RRs at 24⁰C. Points are plotted at the beginning of each 10-year period. B: The RR ratios for the West Midland region for the 0–64 age group. Each line represents one of the 31 overlapping 10-year time periods compared to the ERF for 1981–2021. Darker blues are more recent. C: The resulting RRs for the high, low and no change adaptive capacity scenarios for the West Midland and 0–64 age group. D: The RR ratios for the West Midland region for the 85 + age group. Each line represents one of the 31 overlapping 10-year time periods compared to the ERF for 1981–2021. Darker blues are more recent. E: The resulting RRs for the high, low and no change adaptive capacity scenarios for the West Midland and 85 + age group.
Fig 7.
RCP-SSP matrix containing the estimated annual mortality for each scenario for England and Wales for each decade and the baseline period.
The points are plotted at the median result and the bands represent the full range of values across the years in each decade and each of the four climate model runs. Reading along a single row can be interpreted as the difference in projected heat-related mortality due to changes in population and adaptive capacity (as these plots are for a single RCP). Reading down a single column can be interpreted as the difference in projected heat related mortality due to changes in climate (as these plots are for a single SSP). A similar matrix with disaggregation by age can be found in S2 Fig. RCP-SSP matrix plots for each region with the addition of age disaggregation can be found in S3 Text.
Fig 8.
Plot showing the disaggregation of the estimated mortality burden by the three key drivers, adaptation, population and climate for each RCP-SSP pairing for the 2060s (the 2050s and 2070s show similar results and are included in S3 Fig).
The x-axis is the difference in mortality from the observered period under each driver. The burden under the full scenario is given by the blue marker.
Fig 9.
Collection of plots showing regional variation in heat-related mortality rate under three key (a: RCP2.5-SSP1, b: RCP4.5-SSP2 and c: RCP8.5-SSP5) scenarios for each decade.
Note the vertical scales are different in each plot. The points are plotted at the median result and the bands represent the range of values across the years in each decade and each of the four climate model runs. The mortality is given as a rate per 100,000 population to allow differences beyond population size to be seen.
Table 2.
Percentage of heat-related deaths attributable to a power outage during a future heatwave period (RCP8.5, model run 1, 08/08/2079-18/08/2079) under adaptation assumptions for SSP1, SSP2 and SSP5.