Fig 1.
Overview of the study area, representing the maximum, open water extent of the North Water Polynya.
From Bryndum-Buchholz et al. [45].
Table 1.
Overview of novel ecosystem Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) scenarios for the North Water Polynya and associated biomass (B in t km2) changes.
Fig 2.
Ensemble projections of capelin (Mallotus villosus) (a-c), Arctic cod (Boreogadus saida) (d-f) and killer whales (Orcinus orca) (g-i) distribution in the North Water Polynya from present-day (2000–2014) to 2050 and 2100 under RCP4.5 emissions scenario. Projection results for the individual model types for each species are provided in the Supporting Information (S1–S4 Figs). Killer whale icon created by authors, other icons are public domain silhouette images by Milton Tan (Gadus morhua) and xgirouxb (Thaleichthys pacificus), via PhyloPic (www.phylopic.org).
Table 2.
Parameters from the balanced Ecopath model for the North Water Polynya in 2005–2007.
Fig 3.
Ecopath base model flow diagram (upper panel), Ecosim flow diagram Scenario 2.1 (lower panel).
The size of circles is proportional to the amount of biomass. Numbers below circles represent the biomass of the functional group in t km2. TL = trophic level. Direction of energy flow is represented by position of line with relation to circle: Flows positioned on the top of a trophic group indicate biomass outgoing, while flows positioned on the side indicate entering biomass. The weight of the line indicates the amount of energy flowing between nodes. Narwhal (Monodon monoceros) icon created by authors, all other icons are public domain silhouette images by Tracy Heath (Ursus maritimus), Margot Michaud (Odobenus rosmarus) and others, via PhyloPic (www.phylopic.org).
Table 3.
Direction of biomass change by functional groups for each North Water Polynya Ecosim scenario.
Fig 4.
Biomass of trophic groups in the base ecosystem model and Ecosim scenarios by trophic level in the North Water Polynya ecosystem.
(A) Biomass changes relative to the base ecosystem scenario. (B) Biomass proportion relative to the total biomass in the ecosystem. The different colors match the colors in (A); the shading represents the different trophic groups. Proportion of TL > 4 is < 0.005 in the base ecosystem and across Ecosim scenarios; hence not visible in panel (B). See biomass proportion relative to the total biomass for TL > 4 in S16 Fig.