Fig 1.
Illustration of potential changes in thermal niche widths in a warming environment (mean temperature represented with dashed line).
In each plot, the realized thermal niche is indicated by the shaded regions, and each plot shows a different combination of thermal niche width (columns) and dispersal capacity (rows). Purple shading indicates realized niches shrinking when all habitats warm evenly while orange shading indicates how the niche is affected when cooler areas are available despite overall warming. Though not shown, upper bounds of thermal niches may be further constrained by metabolic limits.
Fig 2.
Map of study area in the Northeast Pacific Ocean, using fishery-independent data from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA), British Columbia (BC), and the West Coast of the USA (California, Oregon, Washington states = COW).
Survey locations in 2015–2016 are shown to depict the spatial extent sampled in each region; the inset illustrates the correlation between the natural log of depth in meters and temperature in degrees Celsius for each region. Map data taken from [36].
Fig 3.
Estimated annual bottom temperature index from each of the regions (Gulf of Alaska, GOA; British Columbia, BC; California-Oregon-Washington, COW) in our analysis (projected to July 1).
Points and solid lines represent means; ribbons represent 95% confidence intervals. Similar indices by depth bin are given in S3 Fig.
Fig 4.
Estimated conditional effects of temperature, by region, for each of the 30 species in our analysis.
Marginal effects are not shown for species–region combinations that lack enough data to be included in our models (S1 Table). For some species (Dover sole, etc.) the most supported model does not include region-specific temperature effects, and a similar curve is applied to all regions (slight differences remain because of small differences in the spatial fields between regions). For each species-region combination, the marginal temperature effect is only shown over the range of empirical data (temperatures where the species is present). All other variables (spatial random effects, depth) are held at 0.
Fig 5.
Estimated coastwide, realized thermal niches for 30 species.
Dark blue lines indicate mean estimates and ribbons represent 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90% predictive intervals. Red solid lines represent the species-specific empirical mean temperature in the core range (where 95% of the density was found over the entire time period) while red dashed lines represent the average temperature across the three regions in our analysis and are the same across plots.
Fig 6.
Estimated change in the thermal niche range (difference between the 90% and 10% intervals, with units in degrees Celsius) of 30 species resulting from a change in 1 degree of temperature.
Points represent the posterior means, horizontal lines represent the 95% credible intervals, and colors correspond to the correlation between observed and predicted changes in niche widths for each species. The horizontal red line at zero represents no change.