Fig 1.
Study area and simulation domains.
a) The Mexico City Metropolitan Area including Mexico City (green), the State of Mexico (brown) and Hidalgo (lilac). Administrative units and associated IDs considered in this study are also shown (see Table 2). Panel b) shows the three WRF model computational domains. The blue rectangle corresponds to the MCMA (domain 3). States and municipalities shapefiles: https://www.inegi.org.mx/app/biblioteca/ficha.html?upc=889463770541 Terms of use: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/inegi/terminos.html.
Fig 2.
Simulated urban growth in the MCMA.
Left: Urban land cover (in red) for the CNTRL experiment (current LULC), Right: U2060 (projected to 2060) experiments. Different colors represent land cover categories according to the USGS scheme. The white dotted line represents the selected west-east transect at 19.8°N (Fig 4). Land use and land cover shapefile: https://www.inegi.org.mx/app/biblioteca/ficha.html?upc=889463173359 States shapefile: https://www.inegi.org.mx/app/biblioteca/ficha.html?upc=889463770541 Terms of use: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/inegi/terminos.html.
Table 1.
Selected monitoring weather stations from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional used to perform WRF model validation.
Basic information for each station including station name, ID, coordinates, observed and simulated (mean±sd) temperatures and mean absolute errors (MAE) and root mean square errors (RMSE) are also shown.
Fig 3.
Spatial distribution of urban-induced heat exposure.
This was calculated as changes in a) Tmean, b) Tmax, and c) Tmin (°C) between the U2060 and CNTRL experiments for each administrative unit within the MCMA. States and municipalities shapefiles: https://www.inegi.org.mx/app/biblioteca/ficha.html?upc=889463770541 Terms of use: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/inegi/terminos.html.
Table 2.
Differences in maximum, minimum and mean temperature between the U2060 and CNTRL experiments for each administrative unit in Mexico City, the State of Mexico and Hidalgo.
Fig 4.
Temperature behavior within the west-east transect at 19.8 °N.
Land cover conditions (lower panel) within the west-east transect at 19.8 °N as defined in Fig 2 under the CNTRL and UN2060 experiments. Different colors represent land cover categories according to the USGS scheme following Fig 2 palette. Upper panel shows the simulated Tmean (black), Tmax (red) and Tmin (blue) changes between CNTRL and U2060 associated to the conversion of different land cover categories by urban land and build-up areas. CNTRL and U2060 conditions are represented by full and dotted lines, respectively.
Fig 5.
Estimated residuals for the set of socioeconomic indicators in the seven administrative units that are more exposed to increases in average temperature (Tmean), as identified in Table 2.