Fig 1.
Thermal suitability for dengue transmitted by Aedes aegypti.
This figure was produced in ArcGIS 10.1 (ESRI, Redlands, CA) using shapefiles freely available from the Natural Earth dataset ver. 4.1.0 (naturalearthdata.com), and freely available shapefiles of IPCC reference regions (https://github.com/IPCC-WG1/Atlas/tree/main/reference-regions).
Fig 2.
The percent of change in population at risk (PAR) from baseline to 2030, 2050, and 2080 (given as boxplot) under the two climate projections, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, for the five potential MBDs in this study, across the eight sub-regions of Central and South America defined by IPCC for one or more months of suitability. DEN Ae = dengue transmitted by Aedes aegypti; DEN Al = Dengue transmitted by Aedes albopctus; MAL Pf = Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmitted by Anopheles stephensi; MAL Pv = P. vivax malaria transmitted by An. stephensi; ZIKA = Zika virus transmitted by Ae. aegypti. Note: At baseline, there is no predicted risk for ZIKA in SSA, so all change is infinite (red star); SWS, changes exceeded 150% for DEN Ae and ZIKA (black asterisks).
Fig 3.
Thermal suitability for dengue transmitted by Aedes albopictus. This figure was produced in ArcGIS 10.1 (ESRI, Redlands, CA) using shapefiles freely available from the Natural Earth dataset ver. 4.1.0 (naturalearthdata.com), and freely available shapefiles of IPCC reference regions (https://github.com/IPCC-WG1/Atlas/tree/main/reference-regions).
Table 1.
Central and South American countries with associated IPCC sub-regions.
Table 2.
Total Population at Risk (PAR) for thermal suitability for transmission (i.e. dengue virus transmitted by Ae. aegypti or Ae. albopictus, and Zika virus transmitted by Ae. aegypti) in Central and South America, and potential (PAR) for thermal suitability of malaria transmission (i.e. P. falciparum or P. vivax transmitted by An. stephensi), at baseline climate (BAS), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) paired with a shared socioeconomic pathway projection of population growth (RCP 4.5 × SSP2; RCP 8.5 × SSP5).
Fig 4.
Thermal suitability for Zika transmitted by Aedes aegypti.
This figure was produced in ArcGIS 10.1 (ESRI, Redlands, CA) using shapefiles freely available from the Natural Earth dataset ver. 4.1.0 (naturalearthdata.com), and freely available shapefiles of IPCC reference regions (https://github.com/IPCC-WG1/Atlas/tree/main/reference-regions).
Fig 5.
Top five countries in Central and South America with the highest population at risk (PAR) for exposure to year-round dengue transmitted by Ae. aegypti (A), dengue transmitted by Ae. albopictus (B) and Zika transmitted by Ae. aegypti. PAR will continue to change in the future as geographic suitability shifts under climate change (RCP 4.5 shown).
Fig 6.
Thermal suitability for transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria by the potential invasive Anopheles stephensi. This figure was produced in ArcGIS 10.1 (ESRI, Redlands, CA) using shapefiles freely available from the Natural Earth dataset ver. 4.1.0 (naturalearthdata.com), and freely available shapefiles of IPCC reference regions (https://github.com/IPCC-WG1/Atlas/tree/main/reference-regions).
Fig 7.
Top five countries in Central and South America with the highest population at risk (PAR) for exposure to year-round P. falciparum malaria (A) and P. vivax malaria (B) transmitted by the potential invasive An. stephensi. PAR will change in the future as geographic suitability shifts under climate change (RCP 4.5 shown).
Fig 8.
Thermal suitability for transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria by the potential invasive Anopheles stephensi.
This figure was produced in ArcGIS 10.1 (ESRI, Redlands, CA) using shapefiles freely available from the Natural Earth dataset ver. 4.1.0 (naturalearthdata.com), and freely available shapefiles of IPCC reference regions (https://github.com/IPCC-WG1/Atlas/tree/main/reference-regions).