Fig 1.
Changes in global areas of shallow water ecosystems (SWEs) relative to the present.
a All SWEs, b seagrass meadows, c macroalgal beds, d tidal marshes, e mangroves, f coral habitats. Blue lines are for RCP2.6 and red lines are for RCP8.5. Shading indicates ranges between minimal and maximal values during each calendar decade (S2 Table).
Table 1.
Areas of SWEs in present and projected future conditions.
Fig 2.
Predicted global distribution of seagrass meadows.
a Present, b 2050s in RCP2.6, c 2090s in RCP2.6, d 2050s in RCP8.5, e 2090s in RCP8.5. The color bar shows changes in area; the present area is 100%. The coastline data was obtained from Open Street Map (openstreetmap.org/copyright).
Fig 3.
Predicted global distribution of tidal marshes and mangroves.
a Tidal marshes in the present, b 2050s in RCP2.6, c 2090s in RCP2.6, d 2050s in RCP8.5, e 2090s in RCP8.5. f Mangroves in the present, g 2050s in RCP2.6, h 2090s in RCP2.6, i 2050s in RCP8.5, j 2090s in RCP8.5. The color bar shows changes in area; the present area is 100%. The coastline data was obtained from Open Street Map (openstreetmap.org/copyright).
Fig 4.
Hypsometric relations between sea-level rise and area of SWEs.
Schematic views of the relationship between geomorphic slope where a the landward slope is gentler than the seaward slope and the resulting SWE changes under sea-level rise in a coastal setting b without hard infrastructure and c with hard infrastructure, and where d the landward slope is steeper than the seaward slope and the resulting SWE changes under sea-level rise e without hard infrastructure and f with hard infrastructure. MSLt1, present mean sea level; MHWSt1, present mean high water spring tide level; MSLt2, future mean sea level; MHWSt2, future mean high water spring tide.
Fig 5.
SWE areas gained and lost with sea-level rise.
Shown are percentages relative to the present of area lost (dashed line) and gained (solid line) in habitat for a tidal marshes and b mangroves due to sea-level rise. Blue and red colors represent changes in RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively.
Fig 6.
Projected global distribution of coral habitat.
a Present, b 2050s in RCP2.6, c 2090s in RCP2.6, d 2050s in RCP8.5, e 2090s in RCP8.5. Green, blue and red represent areas of no change, loss due to climate change and expansion due to climate change, respectively. The coastline data was obtained from Open Street Map (openstreetmap.org/copyright).
Fig 7.
Global category map of predicted total SWE distribution.
a 2050s in RCP2.6, b 2090s in RCP2.6, c 2050s in RCP8.5, and d 2090s in RCP8.5. Category I: total SWE shrinks as each ecosystem shrinks; Category II: overall total SWE shrinks, but shrinkage and expansion of ecosystems are intermixed; III: total SWE is sustained because each ecosystem is sustainable; IV: total SWE is sustained because the shrinkage and expansion offset each other; V: total SWE expands but shrinkage and expansion are intermixed; VI: total SWE expands as each ecosystem expands. One ecosystem (only one species was present) was not categorized, and macroalgal beds are not included because there were no available data. The coastline data was obtained from Open Street Map (openstreetmap.org/copyright).