Fig 1.
The climate security nexus theoretical framework.
The graph shows a “vicious circle” between climate hazards, conflict, and overall human security through their reinforcing impacts on vulnerability and exposure and as mediated by political ecology interactions, conflict and cooperation dynamics, and adaptation processes and outcomes that are highly contextual.
Table 1.
Definition of structural, institutional, and relational political ecology factors that can mediate the impact of climate on vulnerabilities, human security, and conflict.
Adapted from Lederach (2003) [40].
Table 2.
Summary table describing the 10 empirical methods of the Integrated Climate Security Framework (ICSF), including research questions, objectives, data, and sources.
Table 3.
Strengths and weaknesses of the ICSF methods.
Fig 2.
Level of exposure to climate hazards, specifically, drought, floods, and heat.
Note: The base layer of the maps can be found here: https://gadm.org/maps/KEN.html and the terms of use/license can be found here: https://gadm.org/license.html. These maps are not an authority on boundaries.
Fig 3.
Level of occurrence of conflict events.
Note: The base layer of the maps can be found here: https://gadm.org/maps/KEN.html and the terms of use/license can be found here: https://gadm.org/license.html. These maps are not an authority on boundaries.
Fig 4.
Incidence of a selection of human insecurity dimensions, namely inequality, net migration, low productivity and a combination of those.
Note: The base layer of the maps can be found here: https://gadm.org/maps/KEN.html and the terms of use/license can be found here: https://gadm.org/license.html. These maps are not an authority on boundaries.
Fig 5.
The climate security network in Kenya.
Fig 5 shows how climate, agriculture, conflict, inequality, undernutrition, deforestation, and migration variables and data are connected in Kenya. Stronger relationships are visualized with thicker lines. Arrows show higher-level connections and feedback loops. Key variables referenced in text are Climate water deficit (multi-annual average) #1; Number of days with ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration ratio below 0.5 (multi-annual average) #3; Number of days with waterlogging (multi-annual 90th percentile) #5; Frequency of 5-day dry spell within rainy seasons (multi-annual average) #6; Heat stress on cattle (THI) (multi-annual average) #7; Maximum temperature (multi-annual 90th percentile) #12; Total number of conflict events #13; Total number of unique conflict sub-type events #15; Total number of conflict fatalities #18; Accessibility to healthcare services at 2019 #19; Difference of years of education (male—female) (multi-annual median) #20; Years of education male (multi-annual median) #22; Population density (multi-annual average) #23; Population density (multi-annual trend: Sen’s slope) #24; Absolute wealth index #27; Relative wealth index #28; Net primary production (multi-annual upper bound) #31; Estimated Net Migration (multi-annual 90th percentile) #32; Deforestation #33. All other variables can be found in [89].
Fig 6.
Stakeholders working on the climate, human security, and conflict nexus in Kenya, cluster by type: Government, international NGO, International Government, International Organisation, International Research Institute, NGO, National Research Institute, Regional Government, and think tank.
This list was compiled through the ICSF participatory exercises at national and sub-national levels. Note: AMADPOC stands for “African Migration and Development Policy Centre”; AGNES “Africa Group of Negotiators Expert Support; ALIN “Arid Lands Information Network”; CEMIRIDE “Center for Minority Rights Development”; CSA Multi-Stakeholder Platform “Climate Smart-Agriculture Multi-Stakeholder Platform—Ministry of Agriculture, and Livestock Development” of the Ministry of Agriculture, and Livestock Development; EEAS “European External Action Service”; FAO KE “Food and Agriculture Organisation” Country Office for Kenya; FCDC “Frontier Counties Development Council”; IGAD CAEP “Centre of Excellence for Climate Adaptation and Environmental Protection”; IGAD CEWARN “Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism”; IGAD ICPAC “Climate Prediction & Applications Centre”; IGAD ICPALD “Centre for Pastoral Areas and Livestock Development”; ILRI “International Livestock Research Institute”; IPSTC “International Peace Support Training Centre”; IRC “International Rescue Committee”; NDMA “National Drought Management Authority”; NDMU “National Disaster Management Unit”; RECONCILE “Resource Conflict Institute”; SIPRI “Stockholm International Peace Research Institute”; UNDP “UN Development Programme”; WFP “World Food Programme”.