Fig 1.
(a) Location of the interest region and river network from the vectorised information HydroRIVERS derived from the World Wildlife Fund’s (WWF) HydroSHEDS. (b) Monthly accumulated rainfall mean for the period 1981–2021 from the CHIRPS database. Data in mm/month. (c) Rainfall trend measurement through the Kendall coefficient. Small black dots highlight places with significant trends at 95% confidence. Blue indicates an increasing rainfall trend, while red indicates a decreasing trend. The location of Tala (89.30567 W°– 22.73222° N) is represented with a dot in all subplots. HydroSHEDS database is freely available for scientific, educational and commercial use and is available at https://www.hydrosheds.org/products/hydrorivers. CHIRPS dataset is in the public domain as registered with Creative Commons and is available at https://www.chc.ucsb.edu/data/chirps. The figures of all the subpanels have been created with the free software Python version 3.8.5 (Van Rossum and Drake 2009). Geographic information such as country and continent boundaries comes from Python’s Cartophy library. Cartophy uses geographic information from freely available databases such as Natural Earth (available at http://www.naturalearthdata.com/) in the public domain.
Table 1.
Respondents’ characteristics (FGD).
Table 2.
Respondents’ characteristics (Interviews).
Fig 2.
Time evolution of July rainfall in the study site (located at 89.30567 W°– 22.73222° N; blue line).
The red line shows the rainfall linear trend. This figure has been created with the free software Python version 3.8.5 (Van Rossum and Drake 2009), and using rainfall information from the CHIRPS dataset, which is in the public domain as registered with Creative Commons and is available at https://www.chc.ucsb.edu/data/chirps.
Fig 3.
Local social-ecological context explains seasonal migration of the poorest.
Influence of changes on livelihoods based on FGDs and semi-structured interviews with villagers in Khalilnaar, Tala. The solid lines represent positive relationships, while the dots represent negative ones. Separate diagrams for land right owners versus landess are presented in supplementary material. External factors such as government policies, international demand and market price for shrimps, and pull factors for migration such as labour market in destination areas were not presented in this diagram.