Table 1.
Primary habitat, thermal guild, distribution and angling interest of the study species in southwestern Germany.
Fig 1.
Study area (federal state of Baden-Württemberg; southwestern Germany), including elevation gradients, main drainage areas, and classification of lotic water bodies (Base layer of the map, drainage areas and water bodies are from https://udo.lubw.baden-wuerttemberg.de/public/).
Fig 2.
Predicted habitat suitability for six fish species in southwestern Germany under current climatic conditions (a: Brown trout, b: Grayling, c: Stone loach, d: European perch, e: Common roach, and f: Wels catfish).
Areas with high suitability are colored blue (10th percentile cut off), habitats with moderate conditions are green (EET), unsuitable areas are gray. (Base layer of the map is from https://udo.lubw.baden-wuerttemberg.de/public/).
Table 2.
Species distribution model parameters for six fish species in southwestern Germany and predicted habitat suitability (median and interquartile range, 25%-75%, 10th percentile cut off) under current and future climatic conditions derived from 13 different climate models (see Table B in S1 Text for details) across two RCP pathways.
Table 3.
Effects of time (year) and RCP on habitat suitability (percentage of area predicted as suitable) for six different fish species in southwestern Germany (estimated marginal means/least square means).
Fig 3.
Predicted changes in suitable habitat area for six fish species in southwestern Germany under anticipated climate change (a: Brown trout, b: Grayling, c: Stone loach, d: European perch, e: Common roach, and f: Wels catfish).
Data is presented for 13 different climate change models (10th percentile cut off; see Table B in S1 Text for details) as median (points, dashed line) and most likely variation (interquartile range: 25–75 interquartile range % percentiles, shaded area) for different RCP pathways (green: RCP4.5 and red: RCP8.5). Significant changes (One-Way ANOVA with Tukey HSD) between time spans (capital letters, bold) and RCP pathways (lowercase letters, italic) are highlighted.
Fig 4.
Triangle plots of predicted distribution changes between current conditions and predicted future conditions (a: Brown trout, b: Grayling, c: Stone loach, d: European perch, e: Common roach, and f: Wels catfish).
Suitable habitat range shifts are displayed for “stay” (suitable under current and future conditions), “loss” (current: Suitable, future: Not suitable) and “gain” (current: Not suitable, future: Suitable) (see Fig A in S1 Text for explanation). Symbols represent distribution changes between current conditions and individual future predictions (13 different climatic models across two RCP scenarios and years; see Table B in S1 Text for details); hulls were drawn for each year-RCP combination connecting the extreme coordinates of the predicted changes.