Future loss of local-scale thermal refugia in coral reef ecosystems
Fig 6
Percentage of thermal refugia and exposed reef pixels in 12 coral reef regions and globally in the 1986–2019 climate and at 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0°C of global warming.
As with 3.0°C, there are 0% thermal refugia and 100% exposed reefs at 4.0°C of global warming. Error bars are the percentage of thermal refugia and exposed reefs identified using the maximum and minimum probability of DHW events > 4°C-weeks simulated by the 57 sets of CMIP6 climate projections (15 models and four SSP emissions scenarios: two climate models, GFDL-CM4 and NESM3, had only two and three SSP runs available, respectively).