Optimising and Communicating Options for the Control of Invasive Plant Disease When There Is Epidemiological Uncertainty
Fig 5
The effect of thick-tailed dispersal.
(a) Response of the epidemic impact κE to the cull radius L with Cauchy dispersal and low infection rate (β = 0.007d-1). (b) Response of median κE to L for a number of values of β. Note how quickly the performance of control degrades with only relatively small increases to β. (c) Full response of κE to L when β = 0.01d-1. Note the extreme variability at even the optimal radius (e.g. L = 300m, inset C), and the significant probability of a large epidemic at this cull radius, even though the median κE is optimised. (d) Risk of failure for β = 0.01d-1: it is impossible to select a range of radii for which p(Risk < Ω) < 0.1 for Ω = 20% (cf. Fig 2b).