09/18/2023
Research Article
Nowcasting the 2022 mpox outbreak in England
The 2022 mpox outbreak was characterised by long delays from individuals developing symptoms and reporting a positive case. This creates an underestimate of the true extent of the outbreak. The authors developed a mathematical model that accounts for these reporting delays to estimate the true shape of the epidemic curve in real-time. This model was used continuously throughout the outbreak response to provide insight to the incident management team at the UK Health Security Agency.
Image credit: Midas Hofstra
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