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Detecting Differential Transmissibilities That Affect the Size of Self-Limited Outbreaks

Figure 7

Power to detect a change in for human monkeypox following smallpox eradication.

A) Number of observed chains of transmission for monkeypox needed to detect a change in relative to 1980–1984. The 1980–1984 monkeypox data (, ) are compared against a set of simulations with and , with specified on the x-axis. This procedure was repeated 1000 times for each value of the number of simulated chains, (as specified by the y-axis). For each value of , the blue lines indicate the lowest number of observations for which a given power (as a proportion of the 1000 simulations) was achieved. The shades of blue (see legend) indicate different levels of power for which this was done. The straight red line corresponds to the mean number of chains that would have been observed for the 760 case detected during the 2005–2007 monkeypox surveillance [56] for different values of . This line corresponds to chains (since the average chain size is [20]). B) The power of the 2005–2007 monkeypox surveillance data to detect a change in for monkeypox. The black dots are the results of simulations, the blue line is a smooth fit to these. This panel corresponds to a cross-section of the figure in panel A along the red line.

Figure 7