Peer Review History

Original SubmissionSeptember 23, 2020
Decision Letter - Alessandro Pluchino, Editor

PONE-D-20-30011

A control theory approach to optimal pandemic mitigation

PLOS ONE

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Alessandro Pluchino

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

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Reviewers' comments:

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Comments to the Author

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Reviewer #1: Partly

Reviewer #2: Yes

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2. Has the statistical analysis been performed appropriately and rigorously?

Reviewer #1: N/A

Reviewer #2: Yes

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Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

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Reviewer #1: In effect, the authors examine the incurring costs of Corona when

the level of infections is kept at the boundary of the medical capabilities.

This is a valid investigation which should be published. There are however

a few points.

(a) Figures are of --very-- low quality (resolution). Figure captions are highly

insufficient. For example, in Fig. 1 the cost function f(alpha) is mentioned as

'defined somewhere in the text'. Suggesting that the reader should take the

trouble to search for her/him-self. That is arrogant.

(b) Herd immunity is taken at the endpoint. In reality, the outbreak will take

substantially longer, unit I(t)=0. There are not estimates about the costs

incurring after the herd immunity point. Without this estimate, the paper cannot

be published.

(c) The incurring costs are taken to instantaneous. In reality, a certain level

of containment may be ok for a few weeks, but disastrous if uphold for many

years, as suggested by the authors. For example, for a few weeks/month

business may close and reopen, but not after many years. The authors should

clearly state that they propose a duration of 4-6 years (you need to include the

post-here period!) for Germany. The issue of additional costs incurring for

prolong lockdowns need to be discussed.

Reviewer #2: This manuscript introduce a control theory approach to identify optimal pandemic mitigation strategies based on the framework of homogeneous susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models. It provides an optimal control strategy. Optimality is derived and verified by variational and numerical methods for a number of model cost functions. And also they discussed in terms of the feasibility of strategies based on herd immunity. It has certain theoretical guiding significance.

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Reviewer #1: No

Reviewer #2: No

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Revision 1

Dear Prof. Pluchino, Dear Reviewers,

We highly appreciate your comments regarding our manuscript. Please find our detailed response in the separate file "Letter to the Reviewers".

Kind regards,

–Knut Heidemann.

Attachments
Attachment
Submitted filename: response-to-reviewers.pdf
Decision Letter - Alessandro Pluchino, Editor

A control theory approach to optimal pandemic mitigation

PONE-D-20-30011R1

Dear Dr. Heidemann,

We’re pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been judged scientifically suitable for publication and will be formally accepted for publication once it meets all outstanding technical requirements.

Within one week, you’ll receive an e-mail detailing the required amendments. When these have been addressed, you’ll receive a formal acceptance letter and your manuscript will be scheduled for publication.

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Kind regards,

Alessandro Pluchino

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

Additional Editor Comments (optional):

Reviewers' comments:

Formally Accepted
Acceptance Letter - Alessandro Pluchino, Editor

PONE-D-20-30011R1

A control theory approach to optimal pandemic mitigation

Dear Dr. Heidemann:

I'm pleased to inform you that your manuscript has been deemed suitable for publication in PLOS ONE. Congratulations! Your manuscript is now with our production department.

If your institution or institutions have a press office, please let them know about your upcoming paper now to help maximize its impact. If they'll be preparing press materials, please inform our press team within the next 48 hours. Your manuscript will remain under strict press embargo until 2 pm Eastern Time on the date of publication. For more information please contact onepress@plos.org.

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Thank you for submitting your work to PLOS ONE and supporting open access.

Kind regards,

PLOS ONE Editorial Office Staff

on behalf of

Dr. Alessandro Pluchino

Academic Editor

PLOS ONE

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