Prevalence and Risk Factors for Child Labour and Violence against Child in Egypt using Bayesian Geospatial Modelling with Multiple Imputation

Background The incidence of child labour, especially across the developing nations is of global concern. The use of children in employment in developing economies constitutes a major threat to the societies, and concerted efforts are made by the relevant stakeholders towards addressing some of the factors/issues responsible for the menace. Significant risk factors include socio-demographic and economic factors, including poverty, neglect, lack of adequate care, and exposure of children to various grades of violence, parental education status, gender, place of residence, household size, residence’s type or size, wealth index, parental survivorship and household size. Objectives This study, therefore, focuses on identifying socio-demographic/economic and geospatial factors associated with child labour participation. Methods We utilised 2014 Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) from the Ministry health and Population in Egypt, with the record of 20, 560 never married children aged 5-17years engaging in economic activities, in and out of their home. The data focused on demographic and socio-economic characteristics of household members. Multivariate Bayesian geo-additive models were employed to examine the demographical and socio-economic factors for children working less than 16hrs; between 16 and 45hrs and above 45hrours weekly. Results The results showed that at least 31.6% of the children in the age group from 5-10 were working, 68.5% of children aged 11-17 years engaging in child labour (wage), while 44.7 of the children in the age group from 5-10 were engaged in hazard work. From the multivariate Bayesian geo-additive models, the female children (with male children as reference category) working at least 16hrs (OR: 1.3; with 95% CI: 1.2-1.5) are more likely to be engaged in child labour than those working 16 to 45hours (OR: 1; 95% CI: 0.3-1.5). Children born to women without formal education, under non-hazardous jobs, irrespective of the hours spent at work, were mostly exposed to child labour with following percentages: 52.9%, 56.8%, 62.4%, compared to children of mothers with some levels of education. Finally, children that have experienced psychological aggression and physical punishment are mostly exposed to child labour than those without such experience across the job types and hours spent. Conclusion This study revealed a significant influence of socio-demographic and economic factors on the children labour and violence against children in Egypt. Poverty neglects, lack of adequate care and exposures of children to various grades of violence are major drivers of child labour across the country. North-eastern region of Egypt has a higher likelihood of child labour than most other regions, while children who live in Delta are more engaged in hazard work.


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The General Assembly of the United Nations issued in 1989 (Resolution 44/25) a convention 48 for the rights of the children that defines a child as every human being below eighteen years 49 of age. This convention emphasized the need to seek to protect the child from performing any 50 work that could be hazardous, interfere with education, or damage his or her health or 51 physical, mental, spiritual, moral or social development [1]. It also necessitated the Member 52 States to take legislative, administrative, social and educational measures to ensure such 53 protection. In addition, these states are obligated, according to this convention, to set a 54 minimum age for employment, determine an adequate system of working hours and working 55 conditions and impose appropriate penalties to ensure the effective application of these 56 conditions.  Figure 1 shows the risk factors influencing household concerning 92 child labour as reported [5] 93 The Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) reported that there are 94 12 million Egyptians who are homeless, of whom 1.5 million are living in cemeteries [6]. 95 It has been reported also in the same source that the number of people living below the 96 poverty line in Egypt increased to 26.3 % of the population in 2013 compared to 25.2% in 97 2011 [6]. The report showed that the urban frontier governorates had the lowest poverty rate 98 with 11.4 %, while rural Upper Egypt governorates showed the highest poverty rate with 99 49.4 %. Also, it was found that among the illiterate, 37 % are poor while only 8 % of those 100 who finished universities were poor. The poor clearly exists in large households with more 101 than 10 members where 67 % of these households are poor [6]. 102 The problem is that it is difficult to find accurate statistics on child workers or accurate 103 studies that have discussed this problem properly. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a 104 study that can describe this problem accurately and discuss the causes of it and provide some 105 suggestions that may help decision makers to handle this issue. In particular, the recent 106 political changes in Egypt may offer a chance to encourage the new government to deal with 107 this problem. Due to the negative effect of this phenomenon on the society, it is important to 108 precisely investigate this problem further and thoroughly using the results to shape the policy 109 and dedicated to improved outcomes for children [7].

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The analysis in this work is based on the data obtained from the 2014 Egypt Demographic 112 and Health Survey (EDHS) (S1 Data) which is the most recent data on child labour in Egypt.  The sample likewise allows for estimates of most key indicators at the governorate level.  The survey also looked at the extent of child labour and at the practices used in disciplining 135 children. In the 2014 EDHS, the first step in the administration of the Child Labour and Child 136 discipline modules involved the identification of a single child age 1-17 years for whom the 137 questions in the modules would be asked depending on the child's age. If the household 138 included more than one child in the age range, the child for whom the modules were 139 administered was selected using a Kish grid 1 . If the selected child was 1-14 years, the Child   The economic activities were classified into three groups, such as:  155 We considered the following socio-demographic factors and the associated risk factors of the 156 child labour as explanatory variables: child's age (5-17years), sex, household size, place of 157 residence, wealth index, mother education, father education, parental survivorship and violent 158 discipline approaches against children. The wealth index was used as proxies for the socio-

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Let and represent the type of work and probability of working hours respectively.

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Let working hours of at least 15hr diseases be ( ); working hours falling between 16 and = 1 170 45hrs a week be ( ), and the working hours of over 45hrs a week be ( ).
We assume that is distributed as a multinomial distribution, such that: and state-specific random effect, , the probability can be modelled thus: The predictor, is given by  This dataset has a significant proportion of missing data (S5 Table)  "imputed data set" [23], [19]. This method imputes dataset using standard procedures for 214 complete data and combining the results from these analyses.

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No matter which complete-data analysis is used, the process of combining results from 216 different data sets is essentially the same. In other words, we use the data from units where   3) The results from the complete data sets are combined "average" for the inference to

Distribution of Factors Analysed in Child Labour in Egypt (DHS 2014)
284 S3 Table presents   Further, the percentage of male children exposed to child labour is largely higher than those 298 of female children, irrespective of the job type (Non-hazardous, hazardous and household-299 based work) and the length of jobs, except for female children in a household job, and are 300 working at least 16 hours weekly have the higher percentage of 69.1% and 61.5% 301 respectively than the male children. Also, children from rural communities are more exposed 302 to child labour than their colleagues from urban cities with higher percentages across the 303 board of job type and hours spent at work.

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Children living in the medium household and into non-hazardous jobs are apparently having 305 highest exposure rates (53.6%, 50.5% and 50.7%) compared to their mates in both small and 306 large households, irrespective of the hours spent at work. Children from Lower and Upper 307 Egypt were engaged in non-hazardous and household jobs and they have the highest 308 percentage across the three periods of a job than others from another region. However, for the 309 hazardous jobs, children from the Lower Egypt area seem to have the highest percentage of 310 exposure to child labour.

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For the wealth indicators, children from the poorest homes were more exposed into non-  Children born to women without formal education, under non-hazardous jobs, irrespective of 318 the hours spent at work, are mostly exposed to child labour with following percentages: 319 52.7%, 56.8% 62.4%, compared to children of mothers with some levels of education. Also, 320 children whose both parents are alive seem to be most exposed to child labour under 321 household job condition than their mates without living parents. 322 Finally, children that have experienced psychological aggression and physical punishment are 323 mostly exposed to child labour than those without such experience across the job types and  Residence's type, Household size, Place of Residence, Wealth index, parental education, 333 Parental Survivorship and Violent discipline approaches.

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Columns 1&2 present the odds of children working "less than 16 hours" weekly as against 335 those working "between 16 and 45 hours" weekly, under Non-hazardous working condition.

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For example, the results show that female children (with male children as reference category) 337 working less than 16hrs (OR: 1.3; with 95% CI: 1.2-1.5) are more likely to be impacted by 338 child labour than those working 16 to 45hours (OR: 1; 95% CI: 0.3-1.5). Also, for those 339 under household job, female children working between 16 and 45hours (with OR: 1.7; 95% 340 CI: 0.9-3.2) are more likely to be involved in child labour than those working at less than   The half-orphans whose fathers are dead tending to be more exposed to the risks of child 371 labour, under non-hazardous and household-based job than those whose mothers are deceased, 372 irrespective of the hours of labour. However, for the children exposed to hazardous jobs, 373 those with deceased mothers are more likely to be at risk than those with deceased father.

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Further, children who are exposed to psychological aggression and are working 16-45hrs 375 weekly (OR: 3.7; 95%CI: 1.5-9.5), under non-hazardous job, are more likely to be at risk of 376 child labour than their counterparts subjected to the two other working conditions. The same 377 with children subjected to severe physical punishment. However, the risk likelihood is 378 highest for children in household jobs, who are subjected to physical punishments, especially, 379 those working less than 16hrs weekly (OR: 9.3; 95%CI: 4.2-20.8).
380 Figure 3 shows the structured spatial effects of child labour. The results confirmed evidence 381 of regional differences in the likelihood of a child exposed to different type of works. From  across different sectors, are examined. 398 We then cross-classified the economic activities of the children aged 5-17, who are never-399 married and are of the school age, based on the number of hours worked per week, subject to 400 ILO classifications against the socio-demographic and spatial factors to determine the level of 401 association between these factors and the nature of jobs these children are exposed to. We  Further, we found that children aged 11-15 are more at risk of exposure to child labour than 419 those aged over 15 years. The same goes to the rural children, who have higher chances of 420 exposure than their colleagues from urban cities. Children from the poorer homes, those 421 whose fathers are dead and those subjected to psychological aggression and physical 422 punishment are more likely to be lured into child labour.

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Apparently from on our findings so far, one could argue that there is evidence of child labour 424 in Egypt and that socio-demographic and spatial factors greatly predispose majority of the 425 children to it.