Fig 1.
Key elements of the scenario-based Kaya identity analysis.
Table 1.
Morphological analysis to generate scenarios.
Table 2.
Baseline population, GDP, energy and CO2 emissions condition in Changning.
Table 3.
Selection of variations and combination of variables.
Fig 2.
Explanation of various futures based on scenario axes.
Table 4.
Combination of variations for the development of a business-as-usual scenario.
Table 5.
Combination of variations for the development of a more challenging future scenario.
Table 6.
Combination of variations for the development of an environmentalist scenario.
Table 7.
Combination of variations for the development of a slowed economy increase scenario.
Fig 3.
GDP change under four scenarios.
Fig 4.
Population changes under four scenarios.
Fig 5.
Energy intensity changes under four scenarios.
Fig 6.
Carbon intensity changes under four scenarios.
Fig 7.
GDP per capita changes under four scenarios.
Fig 8.
CO2 emissions under four scenarios.
Table 8.
Probability, average value, and confidence interval of each variation.
Fig 9.
Box plots based on referenceable historical data.
Table 9.
Probabilities of scenarios.
Fig 10.
A comparison of scenarios 2, 3, and 4 and three sensitivity analysis models.