Fig 1.
Diagram of the macroeconomic model.
Table 1.
List of noncommunicable diseases.
Table 2.
Macroeconomic burden of NMHs over the period 2020–2050.
Fig 2.
Macroeconomic burden of NMHs by country and year (as a percentage of yearly GDP).
Table 3.
Macroeconomic burden of leading NMHs: Total GDP loss (in billions, 2022 international $)i.
Fig 3.
Macroeconomic burden of NMHs for the whole South American region over the period 2020–2050 across various scenarios.
Baseline scenario = 3% discount rate, disease burden based on median estimates from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) [1], morbidity affects labor force participation, and treatment costs decrease investments in physical capital proportionally to the saving rate. Low disease burden = disease burden based on 2.5 percentile estimates provided by GBD; all other assumptions as in the baseline scenario. High disease burden = burden based on 97.5 percentile estimates provided by GBD; all other assumptions as in the baseline scenario. Larger treatment cost impact scenario = treatment costs reduce physical capital investments by a proportion 50% greater than the saving rate; all other assumptions as in the baseline scenario. No treatment cost impact scenario = treatment costs do not reduce physical capital investments; all other assumptions as in the baseline scenario. No morbidity impact = morbidity does not affect labor force participation; all other assumptions as in the baseline scenario. 1% discount rate scenario = 1% discount rate; all other assumptions as in the baseline scenario. 5% discount rate scenario = 5% discount rate; all other assumptions as in the baseline scenario. The error bars denote 95% confidence intervals.