Fig 1.
Map of temperature monitoring locations throughout the modeled reach of the Quinault River, Washington.
Temperature loggers were deployed at each location, either on the main stem or on tributaries flowing into the Quinault River.
Fig 2.
Conceptual diagram of modeling of inputs needed to run, parameterize, and link temperature and growth modeling.
Table 1.
Input values used in Heat Source version 9.
Fig 3.
Example of riparian vegetation addition of nearshore river buffer with increased vegetation heights (in meters).
The left panel represents current vegetation height, and the right panel represents a minimum 24.4-meter (80 feet) tree height within a 100-meter buffer from the streambank.
Table 2.
Summary of climate and vegetation scenarios.
Table 3.
Bioenergetic model inputs for juvenile Chinook salmon growth scenarios.
Fig 4.
Hourly predicted versus observed temperature values for the final Heat Source model at all monitored temperature locations in 2019 (n = 6) and 2018 (n = 5).
Table 4.
Measures of calibrated water temperature daily model fit by continuous monitoring location.
Fig 5.
Maximum 7DADM water temperature.
Water temperature predicted at each node under two future climate emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, and three riparian vegetation scenarios, as compared to current conditions.
Fig 6.
The average percent of weight loss predicted in a 5.0 g juvenile Chinook salmon.
Predictions of weight loss are during the summer season in the lower Quinault River under two future climate emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, and three riparian vegetation scenarios compared to the current temperature.
Fig 7.
Modeled growth curve for juvenile Pacific salmon and trout.
Growth curves are predicted for A) a five-gram juvenile Chinook salmon eating a low energy-dense diet of 3.0 KJ/g; and B) among salmonid species at 50% Cmax. Cmax is the percentage of theoretical maximum amount of prey a fish can eat given their body size (e.g., a 5.0 g fish can theoretically eat up.4 g of food a day, at a Cmax of 50% they consume 0.2 g). Species specific bioenergetic parameters as published in a [41] and/or b [71].
Fig 8.
Frequency of predicted lethal water temperature exceedances.
Exceedances predicted for adult and juvenile Pacific salmon (non-species specific) [11], in the lower Quinault River (RK 13.2 to 53.9) predicted under future carbon emission projections, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, and riparian shading scenarios during the summer season using a Heat Source water temperature model. Frequency is calculated as the percentage, %, of days with a maximum temperature greater than 24°C at a specific kilometer.