Fig 1.
Estimated case fatality rate over time with confidence intervals of all confirmed and hospitalized cases.
Fig 2.
Cumulative incidence of confirmed and hospitalized infections and deaths as a function of days since first case.
Fig 3.
The two possible outcomes for a hospitalized patient are recovery from EVD or death.
Fig 4.
Illustration of a frequentist multi-arm multi-stage design with 3 treatment arms and 5 planned (interim) analyses.
Standardized test statistic Z(t) as a function of time t for 3 different treatment arms together with upper (efficacy) and lower (futility) stopping boundaries. In this example the trial would stop at the fourth interim analysis with one treatment crossing the upper boundary (square). One treatment (triangle) would be dropped at the second interim analysis, because it crosses the lower boundary. The third treatment (circle) would be declared ineffective at the time the trial stops.
Table 1.
Case fatality rates at the beginning of the epidemic and after 250 days in each arm.
Fig 5.
Average duration, average total time to conclusion, average total sample size and rejection rate for each design for the two-arm scenarios 1 and 2 as a function of recruitment start time.
For the historic control design (TAHC) only the average number of patients in the experimental treatment arm is shown.
Fig 6.
Average duration, average total time to conclusion, average total sample size and rejection rate for each design for the two-arm scenarios 3, 4 and 5 as a function of recruitment start time.
For the historic control design (TAHC) only the average number of patients in the experimental treatment arm is shown.
Fig 7.
Percentage of trial results for each design for the two-arm scenarios 1 and 2 as function of recruitment start time.
Fig 8.
Percentage of trial results for each design for the two-arm scenarios 3, 4 and 5 as function of recruitment start time.
Fig 9.
Average duration, average total time to conclusion, average total sample size, rejection rate (of H0) for each design as function of recruitment start time in the multi-arm scenarios 6-9.
Fig 10.
Percentage of trial results for each design as function of recruitment start time in the multi-arm scenarios 6-9.
Table 2.
Probability of identifying experimental treatment 3 or 4 as effective in scenario 9.
Table 3.
Average number of patients allocated to control group (Arm 0) for scenarios 8 and 9 and different recruitment start times.