Fig 1.
Different levels of within-species consistency can produce the same level of across-species consistency.
(A) Consistent within-species range shifts from climate cahnge in two geographic areas versus idiosyncratic (B) within-species range shifts. For each scenario, the responses of 20 species (A through T) are depicted. In scenario A, 100% of the species show a consistent response between areas whereas in scenario B, only 50% of the species show a consistent response between areas. However, in both scenarios, 60% of the species show the expected uphill response to climate warming.
Fig 2.
Derivation of expected values for the χ2 test.
Each of four possible scenarios for paired range shifts are depicted.
Table 1.
Studies used to compare the direction and magnitude of paired range shifts.
The percentage of species with inconsistent range shifts is reported including all species, and the percentage of inconsistent range shifts when species with range shifts of zero are excluded is reported in italics; numbers of species in the analysis are reported in parentheses. Temperature trends are reported as rates, calculated by the total warming divided by the study duration or as the rate reported in the original study. Precipitation data, where available, were calculated in the same way. For each paired comparison, we list the coefficient of determination to describe the amount of variation in range shifts in one area that can be explained by range shifts in the other area. For both comparisons involving bird species, there are three paired comparisons summarized in each row; we report the mean value, weighted by the number of species. The overall weighted mean1 is listed as a footnote.
Fig 3.
Idiosyncratic elevational range shifts among 17 bird species in France and Italy.
Data from France (blue bars) are from [13], and data from Italy (red bars) are from [17]. Positive numbers indicate uphill shifts. Numbers on x axis refer to species codes given in the Supplementary Information (see S1 File for sources of data).
Fig 4.
Elevational range shifts among 58 species of birds in California.
Positive numbers indicate uphill shifts. Yosemite National Park is area A in the inset map, and Southern California is area B in the inset map. Both areas were reported in [11]. Scatterplots for all paired studies are available in the Supporting Information Figures (S1–S14 Figs).