Figure 1.
Change in population and average warm season (May – Sept) temperature under the BAU scenario between 2010 and 2050.
Table 1.
Description of 2050 heat management WRF simulations.
Figure 2.
Percent of census tract area modified through the ALL heat management scenario.
Land cover changes include the addition of new tree canopy, grass, or shrubs; conversion of roofing areas to greenroofs or high albedo materials; and the conversion of streets and other surface paving to moderate albedo materials (see Table 1).
Table 2.
Description of heat response functions.
Figure 3.
Differences in warm season temperature from BAU by heat management scenario, temperature metric, and MSA.
Figure 4.
Difference in mortality relative to BAU by heat management scenario, HRF, and MSA.
Bars report estimated difference in mortality relative to BAU in response to either the Medina-Ramon minimum temperature (minT) or Zanobetti average apparent temperature (avgapT) HRFs (orange shading) combined with the Anderson average temperature (avgT) HRF for heat wave conditions (red shading). Positive results denote a reduction in mortality relative to the BAU scenario; negative results denote an increase in mortality relative to the BAU scenario. Error bars report 95% confidence intervals.
Figure 5.
Change in mortality (per 100,000 population) under the ALL scenario in Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Phoenix.
2050 mortality changes are estimated in response to the Medina-Ramon/Anderson HRFs and are based on the difference in mortality between the BAU and ALL scenarios.