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Local unemployment changes the springboard effect of low pay: Evidence from England

Fig 3

Average partial effect of becoming unemployed (upper panel), resp. higher-paid (lower panel) employed, at t.

Source: Understanding Society (2015), Waves 1–5, 2009–2014; linked with DfT Accessibility Statistics 2013. The panel on the left shows the APE between someone short-term unemployed and someone low-paid employed at t-1 of becoming unemployed (top), resp. higher-paid employed (bottom); the panel on the right refers to the long-term unemployed. Model 1 includes the local unemployment rate in continuous form, Model 2 relaxes the assumption of effect heterogeneity for different labour market positions and Model 3 includes a dichotomous indicator for low vs. high local unemployment. Model (1): grey line; Model (2) dashed line; Model (3): black line.

Fig 3