Direct and indirect climate controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America
(a) Boxplot of percent change in AAB (2010–2039 vs.1961-2004, SRES A1B scenario) binned by US state or Canadian province, based on significant models with p < 0.05. Sharing of any letter (below the graph) indicates lack of significant differences in medians of percent change in AAB based on Bonferroni-corrected a posteriori comparisons of a Kruskal-Wallis median test. Colored boxes indicate groups of states/regions with statistically similar medians ordered from low (green) through high median values (red). (b) States/regions ordered by increasing median change in AAB. Histograms are model projections based on the 1976–2006 baseline period; red dots are extrapolated increases in median AAB and bars are 95% confidence intervals estimated from Theil-Sen trends (1972–2015).