How Robust Is the Optimistic Update Bias for Estimating Self-Risk and Population Base Rates?
Figure 3
Regression coefficients predicting update from estimation errors.
Estimation Error of self risk (i.e. the difference between a participants' estimate of self risk and provided base rate) significantly predicted update of self risk both for trials in which subjects received desirable and undesirable information, and under both classifications. Estimation Error of base rate (i.e. the difference between a participants' estimate of base rate and provided base rate) significantly predicted update of base rate both for trials in which participants received desirable and undesirable information, and under both classifications. Error bars are SEM; * indicates statistical significance at a threshold of P<0.05, two tailed paired sample t-test after controlling for relevant factors; ** indicates significantly different to a mean of 0, one sample t-test (P<0.05).