How Robust Is the Optimistic Update Bias for Estimating Self-Risk and Population Base Rates?
Participants update estimates of their self risk more when the information they received was desirable compared to undesirable. Participants update estimates of their base rates more when the information they received was desirable compared to undesirable under classification one but not under classification two after controlling for relevant covariates. Update calculated as first minus second estimation for desirable trials and the reverse for undesirable trials (positive values therefore indicate a move towards the information presented). Error bars are SEM; *indicates statistical significance at a threshold of P<0.05, two tailed after controlling for all relevant covariates. Trials classified as desirable when the participant overestimated the probability of the event occurring and undesirable when the participant underestimated the probability of the event occurring: (a) to themselves relative to the provided base rate; (b) in the population relative to the provided base rate.